amber alert for high winds

The forecast for the significant storm tonight and tomorrow shows some changes to yesterday’s forecast with a track further south and timings slightly faster again.  This shows that there are still some uncertainties in the forecast which will continue to be watched carefully.  The strongest winds will be to the south and west of the low pressure area as it moves across southern England, therefore, London and SE England are still in the area of strongest winds.  Wind speeds are still expected to reach gale or severe gale force with gust speeds widely 60-70 mph but some locations, especially on exposed coasts and headlands, could see 80 mph or more.  Winds will initially be from the south or southwest before turning west to north-westerly as the low moves to the east during Monday morning.  The wind will be strong enough to cause severe damage to trees, structural damage and a risk from flying debris. Mobile homes and caravans on exposed coasts and headlands are significantly at risk. Current forecasts suggest that the strongest winds will be during Monday morning with latest timings suggesting the greatest risk is between midnight and 9 am, however, this will need watching.   The system will also lead to areas of locally heavy rain and a low risk of surface water flooding.  The rain is expected to arrive early Sunday evening and clear on Monday morning giving us totals of around 20-30 mm isolated 40 mm in places.  Flooding may be exacerbated by falling leaves and debris blocking drains and grills.  The tides are low on Monday so the risk of coastal flooding is low, however, we are expecting some big waves which may lead to damage to the shingle beaches along the south coast with some spray / overtopping and minor coastal flooding possible. The latest FFC Flood Guidance Statement is showing yellow for surface water and coastal flooding for Monday.    The Met Office will update the warnings later by issuing an Amber WIND Warning (Medium Likelihood of High Impacts) which will cover all of London & SE England . This warning will cover the potential impacts from this low pressure system including both the wind and rain.